Jeg Forex Blog

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY 28th July (00:30 GMT)

Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) traders were kept on their toes with resistance met on multiple asset classes and some sharp falls in commodities. July CB Consumer Confidence forecast fell 3 points to 50.4 but May House Prices increased 0.5% m/m. In US stocks, DJIA +12 points closing at 10537, S&P - points closing at 1114 and NASDAQ - points closing at 2288. Looking ahead, June Durable Goods are forecast at 1 vs. -0.6% previously.

The Euro (EUR) the rally continued in Europe but ran out of steam late in the day as Oil losses mounted and stocks failed to extend gains. The EUR/USD closed at the 1.3000 figure with the market trading in a tight range so far this week, EUR/JPY did well but EUR/GBP fell back towards 0.8300. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2951 and a high of 1.3047 before closing at 1.2990. Looking ahead, July German CPI forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.1% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was broadly weaker as the market pushed higher on USD/JPY after growing impatient on the downside. Stable markets and an improving technical outlook for the crosses are both encouraging Yen selling. AUD/JPY is sitting close to the Key Y80 level and is a good barometer of risk appetite in the market. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 86.81 and a high of 87.99 before closing the day around 87.75 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) failed above 1.5500 on its first attempt but broke higher later in the day on good EUR/GBP selling and GBP/JPY buying. GBP/JPY broke to multi-month highs above Y136 and is targeting Y140 in the short term. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5441 and a high of 1.5602 before closing the day at 1.5580 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Governor King Speaks.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was strong, holding above 0.9000 the whole day and testing resistance towards 0.9080 in the US session. AUD/JPY buying was the major catalyst but the market is eagerly awaiting today’s CPI figures before pushing higher still. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8998 and a high of 0.9071 before closing the US session at 0.9020. Looking ahead, Q2 CPI forecast at 3.4% vs. 2.9% y/y.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold pulled back as demand subsided given the multiple failures at $1200. Overall trading with a low of USD$1187 and high of USD $1157 before ending the New York session at USD$1164 an ounce. Oil slid towards $77 on the drop in US consumer confidence. WTI Oil Closed -$0.30 at $78.80 a barrel.

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TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Long Term Analysis - July 28, 2010 - Session America

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EUR / USD: Bullish. Target of 1.342. Support 1.274 and 1.248.
USD / JPY: Bearish. Target 84.8. 89.2 Resistance.
GBP / USD: Bullish. Target of 1.582 and 1.607. Support 1.513 and 1.486.
USD / CHF: Bearish. Target of 1.013 and 0.939. Resistance 1.068 and 1.079.
AUD / USD: Bullish. Target of 0.908 and 0.939. Support 0.874 and 0.832.
USD / CAD: NEUTRAL. Support 1.014. Resistance 1.068.
EUR / CHF: NEUTRAL. Target of 1.404 and 1.459. Support 1.362 and 1.334.
EUR / GBP: NEUTRAL. Support 0.832 and 0.825. Resistance 0.863.
EUR / JPY: Bullish. Support 110.0 and 107.3. Resistance 115.5.
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Long Term Analysis - July 28, 2010 - European Session

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EUR / USD: NEUTRAL. Target of 1.342. Support 1.274 and 1.248.
USD / JPY: Bearish. Target 84.8. 89.2 Resistance.
GBP / USD: Bullish. Target of 1.582 and 1.607. Support 1.513 and 1.486.
USD / CHF: Bearish. Target of 1.013 and 0.939. Resistance 1.068 and 1.079.
AUD / USD: Bullish. Target of 0.908. Support 0.874 and 0.832.
USD / CAD: NEUTRAL. Support 1.014. Resistance 1.068.
EUR / CHF: NEUTRAL. Support 1.334 and 1.307. Resistance 1.368 and 1.381.
EUR / GBP: NEUTRAL. Support 0.832 and 0.825. Resistance 0.863.
EUR / JPY: NEUTRAL. Support 110.0 and 107.3. Resistance 115.5.

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Long Term Analysis - July 28, 2010 - Asian Session

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EUR / USD: NEUTRAL. Target of 1.342. Support 1.274 and 1.248.
USD / JPY: Bearish. Target 84.8. 89.2 Resistance.
GBP / USD: Bullish. Target of 1.582 and 1.607. Support 1.513 and 1.486.
USD / CHF: Bearish. Target of 1.013 and 0.939. Resistance 1.068 and 1.079.
AUD / USD: Bullish. Target of 0.908. Support 0.874 and 0.832.
USD / CAD: NEUTRAL. Support 1.014. Resistance 1.068.
EUR / CHF: NEUTRAL. Support 1.334 and 1.307. Resistance 1.368 and 1.381.
EUR / GBP: NEUTRAL. Support 0.832 and 0.825. Resistance 0.863.
EUR / JPY: NEUTRAL. Support 110.0 and 107.3. Resistance 115.5.

European Session

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15:45 - England - BOE Governor Mervyn King - Review together with members of the BOE MPC, on monetary policy and financial stability before the Treasury Select Committee in London. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has influence in the country’s currency value. An optimistic statement will be good for the GBP.

SesiAmerika

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19:30 - American - Core Durable Goods Orders - Request for durable goods over the past two months and then released under prediction. In this month predicted 0.6%, if the data released over the prediction it will be beneficial to USD.

19:30 - America - Durable Goods Orders - Request for durable goods last month was released under a prediction. In this month estimated at 0.9% level. This is an indicator of production, with more purchases will increase their activities in fulfilling such orders. If the data are released on the prediction it will be beneficial to USD.

21:30 - America - Crude Oil Inventories - changes the amount of crude oil stocks suffered a deficit of 1.4 Million Dollars. This condition affects the price of oil products and industrial sectors that use oil to produce the product.