Jeg Forex Blog

* Fed says will keep rates “exceptionally low”

* Fed’s bearish comments on jobs, housing weigh on dollar

* S&P affirms Greece ratings, ends downgrade review

* U.S. Senate bill would penalize China over yuan (Adds comment, updates prices)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened against the euro and yen on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve held U.S. interest rates unchanged and reiterated a pledge to keep rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.”

A dissenting vote by the president of the Kansas City Fed, Thomas Hoenig added to the bearish sentiment on the dollar because no other policy makers joined him in objecting to a continued expression of the need for ultra-low rates for an extended period.

The Fed has targeted an overnight bank-to-bank lending rate of between zero and 0.25 percent since December 2008. Interest rates near zero diminish the appeal of the U.S. dollar against higher-yielding currencies. For the Fed statement, click on [ID:nN16251615].

“Going into the Fed meeting, traders were looking for two things: the inclusion of ‘extended period’ and the number of dissenters. Once forex traders saw the words reappear in the statement and saw that Hoenig was the only dissenter, they bailed out of dollars,” said Kathy Lien, director of FX strategy, at GFT in New York.

Hoenig, who cast a lone dissenting vote for a second consecutive meeting, said the commitment to keep rates low was no longer warranted.

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The euro had started gaining earlier in the global session after European Union finance ministers backed plans to help Greece if needed and Standard & Poor’s affirmed its ratings on the debt-stricken country and ended its review for a downgrade. For the S&P story, click on [ID:nN16231275].

The Fed’s statement added to the market’s bearish stance on the dollar, though the greenback is still up nearly 1 percent versus the euro so far this month and roughly 4 percent higher this year.

Following the release of the Fed’s policy statement, implied prospects that the U.S. central bank will boost the federal funds rate by its November meeting slid to 76 percent, based on trading in the November futures contract at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Prospects for a rate hike by the November meeting had been roughly 87 percent before end of the meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

U.S. HOUSING, EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS

Downbeat comments in the Fed’s policy statement on the U.S. housing and employment sectors also weighed on the dollar, said Greg Salvaggio, senior vice president for capital markets, at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

“I don’t think the market expected them to say housing is still at depressed levels and employers are still reluctant to add to payrolls,” Salvaggio said. Still, he added, “We’re not expecting the euro to break out of its $1.35-$1.38 range on the back of this.”

Against the yen, the dollar slipped to 90.24 yen JPY=, down 0.3 percent. Repatriation flows by Japanese firms ahead of the financial year-end on March 31 also benefited the Japanese currency, traders said.

The Bank of Japan ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday and is likely to announce more monetary easing measures, like boosting the size or duration of special fund-pumping operations. [ID:nTOE62B065]

Members of the U.S. Congress on Tuesday, meanwhile, threatened Beijing with duties on some of its exports if it fails to revalue its currency, pressuring the Obama administration to label China a currency manipulator. [ID:nN16248922].

Nick Bennenbroek, head of FX strategy at Wells Fargo in New York, said the congressional measure is counterproductive. “When China gets international pressure to adjust its currency policy, it seems to resist that pressure. It doesn’t like to be pushed around.”

Overall, Bennenbroek said, increased tensions between the United States and China should scale back expectations for an appreciation in the yuan in the non-deliverable forwards market and also restrain gains in Asian currencies. (Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson and Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Leslie Adler)

WASHINGTON (MNI) - The U.S. February retail sales report was better than expected, although downward revisions to January sales totals poured cold water on the result.

February retail sales printed +0.3% (as opposed to the drop that was expected), and ex-auto sales were an even stronger +0.8%. Sales ex autos and gasoline were +0.9%.

January sales were revised lower to +0.1% overall, so the Q1 gain has been damped. But this is still consistent with recovery; Q1 consumption could be up 2-3% using these numbers.

Sales strength was widespread in February, with the exception of healthcare at -0.7% and autos at -2.0%.

Gains were seen in electronics at +3.7%, food +1.3%, sporting goods +1.2%, furniture +0.7%, and building materials +0.5%. Overall, the January-February data suggest Q1 is growing at a modest pace.

**Market News International Washington Bureau: (202)371-2121**

imarketnews.com/?q=node/10157

While share price has dropped in the telecom industry, billion Carlos Slim’s companies have held up well.

Carlos Slim Helu might be the world’s richest man, but how is his telecommunications interest holding up?

After Bill Gates slipped from the top spot, Slim claims the title after earning $53.5 billion, largely through telecom ventures. (See “Bill Gates No Longer Richest Man.”)

America Movil ( AMX - news - people ), a mobile company that represents one of Slim’s biggest telecom holdings, has beaten many of its competitors in preserving share price during the opening months of 2010. Slim holds a $23 billion stake in the company. Since the beginning of December, share price has gained about 1%, with a large spike in January, despite the industrywide decline. Over the past year, shares of America Movil have gained 35%.

Telefonos de Mexico ( TMX - news - people ), a Mexican telecom company for which Slim is chairman of the board, has held up well against several of its primary competitors over the last several months. Shares of several other telecom heavyweights, including Verizon ( VZ - news - people ), Deutsche Telecom, recorded similar losses as Telefonos de Mexico at slightly more than 10%.

Shares of BT Group ( BT - news - people ) slid rapidly from the beginning of December and lost more than 20%.

But Telefones de Mexico didn’t perform quite as well as some of its competitors, including France Telecom ( FTE - news - people ), shares of which lost only 5%, and AT&T ( T - news - people ) shares lost about 7%.

France Telecom was recently upgraded by Citigroup ( C - news - people ) from sell to hold on March 3.

The company also announced Wednesday that it would sell an additional 150 American depositary shares in an effort to accomodate North American investors.

Despite news about its chairman’s new title, shares of Telefonos de Mexico continued their monthslong slide and lost 1% to close at $15.51.

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